Final polls show Clinton with narrow lead in Va.

13News Now Mike Gooding has the story

NORFOLK, Va. (WVEC) -- On the eve of the election, two new polls show Hillary Clinton narrowly leading Donald Trump in Virginia.

A poll released Monday morning from Christopher Newport University's Wason Center for Public Policy has the Democratic candidate up by six points, 48-to-42 percent. Also released Monday is a poll from Hampton University's Center for Public Policy that shows an even narrower, four-point gap, with Clinton leading Trump 45 percent to 41 percent.

"Trump has been closing on her the last six weeks. I'm not sure there is enough vote left out there to close the gap all the way," said CNU political science professor and pollster Quentin Kidd. "It looks like that six point lead Clinton has is pretty formidable for Trump to overcome in Virginia at this point, with basically one day left."

The challenges for Trump in this state, according to Kidd, are many, and may be insurmountable.

"The gender gap is in Clinton's favor by 16 percentage points," he said. "Clinton is winning the white, college-educated vote in Virginia. She's also winning that vote nationally. Assuming she wins that vote tomorrow, it will be the first time a Democrat has won the white, college-educated vote since 1956."

The CNU poll comes one day after FBI director James Comey announced that Clinton should not face criminal charges after a review of new emails.

Kidd doubts that that eleventh hour development will have much impact on the election's outcome.

"I think not," he said. "I think at this point, voter attitudes are pretty much baked in. You either know either you're a Clinton or a Trump supporter. There are very few voters who aren't sure."
 

The CNU poll

Trump has cut into Clinton's lead over the past few weeks, but it appears he still trails in the Commonwealth. At one point, Clinton had a 15-point advantage in the CNU poll.

The poll also shows a gender gap, with women voters favoring Clinton by 16 points, 53-37 percent. Millennials are even stronger for Clinton, as voters 18-34 years old prefer her, 56-33 percent.

Trump’s strongest support comes from white men, who back him 62-29 percent. White voters overall favor Trump, 54-36 percent, while African-American voters support Clinton, 89-5 percent.

Clinton's biggest lead in the CNU poll came in mid-October, shortly after leaked audio of Trump surfaced where he described groping and forcefully kissing women.

Trump has since chipped away at that lead, but with just a day before the election, still has quite a bit of ground to gain in order to win Virginia.

This survey was conducted Nov. 1-6 among 1,193 likely Virginia voters. It has an overall margin of error of +/- 3.6%, though the margin of error for subgroups is higher.

CNU Tracking Poll: Clinton leads Trump 48 to 42 percent

The Hampton University poll

Like the CNU poll, the HU Center for Public Policy's final measurement before the election shows a once-monumental lead for Clinton shrink down to a close race.

In early October, Clinton had led Trump 46 percent to 34 percent. Clinton remains ahead in the final HU poll, but now only 45 percent to 41 percent.  

But the news is actually good for Clinton, as just days ago she had been trailing Trump in the CPP poll by four points, following the revelations that the FBI was again investigating Clinton's emails.

What is perhaps most telling of the CPP poll is the large number of people who remain undecided with just a day before the election: 14 percent. How these undecided voters swing could ultimately determine who wins Virginia.

The Hampton University Center for Public Policy poll was conducted Nov. 2-6 among 802 likely Virginia voters. It has an overall margin of error of +/- 4.4%.

Hampton University Center for Public Policy's final 2016 presidential poll

 


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