Satellite shows a poorly organized system right now over the Turks and Caicos islands. Hurricane hunter aircraft did find a center of circulation and decided to classify this system as a tropical depression with winds of 35 mph. The storm is moving to the NW at 12 mph.
The forecast track does call for a north, then northeast curve, south of Cape Lookout Thursday as a Category 1 hurricane. But the models really are all over the place with this one - with some models calling for the storm to hit Florida while others curve it way out to sea. Right now, the forecast is sort of an 'up the middle' forecast.
Tropical Depression number four will likely be a tropical storm by tomorrow and a hurricane by Tuesday. There is still a lot of uncertainty in the storm's track. The biggest threat for our region right now is rough surf and rip currents towards the middle and the end of next week.