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Will Russia invade Ukraine? The conflict explained in 750 words

While nobody knows for sure what will happen next, the root of the modern dispute has a lot to do with NATO and strategic positioning.

The U.S. Department of State has told families of Americans stationed at the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine to leave the country as the possibility of a Russian invasion looms.

So, how did we get here?

Well, Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union, which dissolved in 1991. Today, however, pieces of culture are still shared. For instance, while Ukrainian is the primary language, most people living in Ukraine also speak Russian.

You may remember hearing about protests in Ukraine back in 2013. They happened in the capital city of Kyiv. People were upset that then-President Viktor Yanukovych didn’t pursue a deal that would’ve strengthened the economic links between Ukraine and the European Union. To quell the civil unrest, state security went after protesters – which only made the situation more heated.

Long story short: Yanukovych ends up leaving the country in 2014; and Russian military forces take the opportunity to seize – then annex – the Crimean Peninsula along the north coast of the Black Sea. Now, it seems Russia wants more.

Russian is interested in Ukraine for a couple reasons.

First, Ukraine would be a strategic cushion between Russia and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member countries – 27 of 30 of which are in Europe. Those member countries include other former Soviet Union members like Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Russia absolutely doesn’t want Ukraine to join NATO, too, because the member countries agree that if one of them gets invaded, they’re all supposed to get together and mount a defense. That wouldn’t be great odds for Russia, especially since one of NATO’s key missions is to prevent Soviet aggression.

Second, Ukraine is a bigger agricultural powerhouse than you probably realize. In fact, it has been dubbed “the breadbasket of Europe” and has roughly a quarter of the Earth’s extra-fertile “black soil,” according to the Atlantic Council think tank. The organization says Ukraine is one of the world’s top grain exporters and a global leader in production of products like sunflower oil and soybeans. Having control of that agricultural market would be a strategic victory for Russia, as would running Ukraine’s well-placed seaports along the Black Sea.

Russia already has one foot in the door in Ukraine – with separatists controlling some eastern industrial locations along the border. Since 2014, the two nations have been in a conflict that’s become known simply as the Russo-Ukrainian War – which has basically been a war of attrition. On a semi-regular basis, Russian-backed separatists exchange gunfire with Ukrainian soldiers in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. To date, experts estimate as many as 14,000 people have died – possibly more.

In between gunfire, Ukraine has also been the victim of cyberattacks that CBS News reports the country believes could be linked to hackers backed by Moscow. The attacks have caused electrical blackouts and damaged computer systems.

Since the fall of 2021, tensions have become heightened. The Associated Press says Russia has been positioning an estimated 100,000 troops near Ukraine. Military equipment has been moved too. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has warned that there would be consequences for Russia if Vladimir Putin’s military invades Ukraine.

Ultimately, Russia wants NATO to have less control over Eastern Europe – including having the member countries pull back some of the battalions stationed in the region. And, the Russians definitely don’t want Ukraine in NATO.

Even if Ukraine isn’t part of NATO, the country is still considered a strategic ally for the U.S. – which is made clear on the State Department’s website. But, how far the White House is willing to go to protect Ukraine remains a question mark.

The New York Times say President Joe Biden is considering sending thousands of American troops, planes and warships to the Baltics and Eastern Europe. Supporters of that idea point to keeping strategic benefits, maintaining our diplomatic relationship, and sending a message to Russia. Critics say this is a way to drag us into yet another war that only benefits the military-industrial complex.

And if you think sanctions against Russia are a better solution, European nations aren’t necessarily sold on that. According to Bloomberg, Russia is the EU’s fifth-largest trade partner and its top supplier of oil and natural gas. As a result, the EU would prefer not to be in a sanctions battle – or any sort of battle – that could drive up gas prices this winter and end up hurting Europe as a whole.

So, what happens next? Only time will tell.

   

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