NEWPORT NEWS, Va. (WVEC) — The Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University released the poll results for Virginia's 2nd Congressional District race.
It shows Republican Representative Scott Taylor leading challenger Democrat Elaine Luria by seven points among likely voters, 50 percent to 43 percent.
"We narrow it down more to the most committed voters, those are the people who are enthusiastic and are certain they're going to vote, and, among that group, Taylor is up 6 percent," said CNU Political Science Professor Quentin Kidd.
The poll also shows Luria, a retired Navy commander, is also losing the vote of military households by 22 percent to the former Navy SEAL. The spread is Taylor 59 percent, Luria 37 percent.
According to the poll, Luria does not appear to benefit much from a "Trump Bump" that is helping Democrats elsewhere, although 51 percent of likely voters in the district say they disapprove of how President Donald Trump is doing his job, while 46 percent approve.
"What it says to me is, Taylor is doing a good job differentiating himself from Donald Trump," said Kidd.
Trump carried the district in 2016, but Democrat Ralph Northam won it in last year’s governor’s race, so the district is not a Republican lock.
According to 68 percent of poll participants, the petition signature scandal "did not matter."
"Democrats think it's a really bad thing," said Kidd. "Republicans don't think it's a bad thing, and independents most importantly, lean towards Republicans on the issue of petition scandal and don't really think it's a big deal."
CNU's poll also shows Democratic Senator Tim Kaine leading GOP Challenger Corey Stewart in the 2nd District by 5 points.
Taylor and Luria will share the same stage tonight. They'll appear at the Chesapeake Bay Foundation's Candidate Forum on the Environment, from 7 p.m. to 8:45 p.m. at the Brock Environmental Center. It's free and open to the public.