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Tropical system has 40 percent chance for development

This system could bring rain to Hampton Roads for the second half of this weekend, including on Memorial Day.

NORFOLK, Va. (WVEC) -- Tuesday's morning advisory from the National Hurricane Center warned very heavy rain can be expected across Florida from a system in the Caribbean as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico.

A broad surface low centered east of Belize is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba into the Florida peninsula.

While strong upper-level winds and dry air aloft are expected to limit organization during the next couple of days, some gradual subtropical or tropical development is possible late this week while the system moves slowly north into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across western Cuba, the Cayman Islands and much of Florida during the next several days.

That moisture could also make its way up to Hampton Roads later this weekend, bringing a good chance of rain on Sunday and Memorial Day. This forecast could change, but it's not too early to start thinking about having alternate plans for any outdoor activities.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours: near 0 percent
  • Formation chance through 5 days: 40 percent

Models project different paths for the system.

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