HUNTSVILLE, Ala. — We're 11 days away from the official start to the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season and things are already starting to heat up. We're currently keeping our eyes on two areas of low pressure that both have the potential to develop into tropical cyclones.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a non-tropical low pressure area centered about 450 miles east-northeast of Bermuda have become better organized during the past several hours. The low has not yet acquired subtropical storm characteristics. However, if current trends continue, advisories could be initiated on the system later today or tonight as it moves westward to west-southwestward to the northeast of Bermuda. Subsequently, the low is forecast to move northeastward into a more hostile environment by Saturday night or Sunday. Additional information on this low pressure area can by found here, issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center and forecast products, including a tropical storm watch, issued by the Bermuda Weather Service. Disturbance 1 has a 90% chance of cyclone formation within the next 48 hours. This will have no impact to the United States.
Recent satellite imagery suggests that a low-level circulation is forming associated with the mid-to upper-level disturbance over the western Gulf of Mexico. However, shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for development, and a short-lived tropical depression or storm could form before the disturbance moves inland over the northwestern Gulf coast tonight. Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall over portions of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana during the next few days. Disturbance 2 has a 40% chance of formation within the next 48 hours.
NOAA and Colorado State University have both predicted another above average Atlantic Hurricane Season, making this the seventh consecutive year for an above average hurricane season.