NEW ORLEANS — Tropical Depression 15 is just off the coast of Africa. It is forecast to stay a depression and eventually weaken over the far eastern Atlantic.
We are also watching the potential for weekend rain due to a tropical disturbance which may send tropical moisture our way on Saturday.
Right now the area is a messy trough of low pressure over Central America. It may drift into the Bay of Campeche tomorrow and then could head toward the Gulf Coast with tropical rains this weekend.
The National Hurricane Center gives the area a 40% chance of developing into a depression or storm in the next five days, but there's still a lot of uncertainty.
The European model has 1-2 inches of rain on Saturday and breezier conditions. If it becomes a depression, that could mean 20+ mph winds and higher gusts. The GFS model keeps most of the rain away on Saturday and just pulls in a few showers on Sunday.
So bottom line... there is still a lot of uncertainty about the weekend forecast, but for now you may want to plan for rain on Saturday just in case.
A stronger cold front on Monday may bring some additional rain and wind along with cooler weather for the middle of next week.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, there are no areas expected to develop this week.
2019 Hurricane Season Outlook
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted 10 to 17 named storms. It says five to nine of them will become hurricanes and two to four of those would become major hurricanes with 111 mph winds or higher.
Colorado State University, which pioneered hurricane season predictions, is forecasting 14 named storms, 7 to become hurricanes and two to hit major status.
IBM's Weather Company calls for 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three majors. Accuweather calls for 12 to 14 named storms, five to seven hurricanes and two to four major storms.