NEW ORLEANS — Tropics
Tropical Storm Karen has formed. It will impact Puerto Rico by Tuesday into Wednesday bringing heavy rain and gusty winds. The forecast by the end of next week becomes very tricky. A lot of guidance shows a strengthening ridge which could help turn Karen back toward the U.S. Too early for specifics, and we have a while to keep an eye on this storm. Those from the Gulf Coast to the East Coast need to stay tuned to the forecast over the coming week.
Tropical Storm Jerry is weakening at the moment, but may still be a strong tropical storm or even hurricane when it gets close to Bermuda late Tuesday or Wednesday.
One more wave about to come off of Africa has a high chance of development in five days. Its name would likely be Lorenzo, and right now models keep it out at sea. We'll watch it and will keep you updated.
2019 Hurricane Season Outlook
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted 10 to 17 named storms. It says five to nine of them will become hurricanes and two to four of those would become major hurricanes with 111 mph winds or higher.
Colorado State University, which pioneered hurricane season predictions, is forecasting 14 named storms, 7 to become hurricanes and two to hit major status.
IBM's Weather Company calls for 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three majors. Accuweather calls for 12 to 14 named storms, five to seven hurricanes and two to four major storms.