NEW ORLEANS — In the tropics, a trough off the coast of the southeast US has a low 10% chance of development as of Saturday afternoon. This is headed out into the Atlantic. Of more interest to us is a wave in the western Caribbean. It is very disorganized as it battles wind shear. The wave is expected to get into the southern and then western Gulf by mid next week. Models are in agreement that this will remain as only a rain-maker for parts of the Gulf coast anywhere from Texas to Louisiana. We will continue to watch closely over the coming days.
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2019 Hurricane Season Outlook
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted 10 to 17 named storms. It says five to nine of them will become hurricanes and two to four of those would become major hurricanes with 111 mph winds or higher.
Colorado State University, which pioneered hurricane season predictions, is forecasting 14 named storms, 7 to become hurricanes and two to hit major status.
IBM's Weather Company calls for 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three majors. Accuweather calls for 12 to 14 named storms, five to seven hurricanes and two to four major storms.