ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. -- The tropics have been quiet across the Atlantic and Caribbean thus far in August, but that doesn't mean September will be all that silent either.
One of the more reliable weather computer models, the ECMWF (European), is beginning to show some consistency with each update in developing a low-pressure system early next week in the Bahamas. By late next week, it moves across the Florida peninsula and further develops over the Gulf of Mexico before impacting the Florida Panhandle.
While the European model is one of the more reliable models, the system still is days away from possibly happening, and it might not happen as depicted.
The American GFS computer model shows a similar feature but has it moving to the Texas coast.
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Meteorologists look for consistency each time a computer model updates: If each update shows the same weather feature, a forecaster's confidence in that feature actually developing increases.
It's not all that surprising that there are more hints of tropical activity this time of year. So, relax for now. It's summertime. This happens. And, the peak of hurricane season is Sept. 10, which is when there's the highest number of storms on average.
NHC: Tropics heat up near Africa
National Hurricane Center and 10Weather meteorologists are keeping their eyes on a more likely area of development right now off the African coast. This area has an 80-percent chance in the next five days of developing into a tropical depression while a system moves over open water.
The European model strengthens the system as it moves into the central Atlantic. So, too, does the GFS model. While it's way too early to say whether the system affects any land or the U.S., both models move the system out to sea for the fishes.
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