VIRGINIA BEACH, Va. — New poll results published Friday by the University of Mary Washington show more polled Virginians would vote for Joe Biden over Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin, if those were the only two candidates on their respective ballots.
The survey included responses from 1,000 Virginians with more than 800 registered voters and more than 700 likely voters.
If the 2024 presidential election were held today and the candidates were (Glenn Youngkin and Joe Biden) for whom would you vote?
- 34% Glenn Youngkin
- 37% Joe Biden
- 13% Other Candidate
- 6% None / Would Not Vote
- 8% Don’t Know
- 2% Refused
The poll results follow months of speculation and conversation about a possible presidential run by the first-time Virginia Governor. While Gov. Youngkin has publicly brushed off the inquiries, the topic has been in the political landscape since Gov. Youngkin stumped for Republican Gubernatorial candidates in 2022.
While denying any potential run this year, the timeline for prospective campaigns has also been a point on consideration.
The results are reverse from what a Commonwealth Poll published by VCU published this August:
If the election for president were held today in Virginia and the candidates were current President Joe Biden and current Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, 44% of Virginians said they would vote for Youngkin while 37% would vote for Biden, according to the new Commonwealth Poll conducted by the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University.
The benefits — and challenges — of a Youngkin run
With long-time politicians like former Vice President Mike Pence, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis already rounding out the Republican Primary field, Youngkin would certainly be a late addition to the already crowded field.
However, Dr. A.J. Nolte — Professor and Director of the Master’s in Government Program at Regent University, said Youngkin has so far displayed qualities of Presidential pedigree, and that his short-lived political career does not work against him.
"Look at the Presidential races before Biden. President Trump had never run for political office, and President Obama was a first term senator at the time," Nolte said.
Nolte added that Youngkin's "moderate" billing could potentially do better than other previous late-entry candidates to a Presidential Primary, but that the November elections where all legislative seats are up for grabs are the biggest challenge.
"Even getting on the ballot, the soonest I could see him getting on the ballot is after the Virginia legislative session, but he has to do well in those elections," Nolte added, saying how an announcement before the races would splinter the Republicans attempt to gain full control of both the State Senate and House of Delegates.
"The second hurdle is getting ballot access. [Primaries] In Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, he couldn’t have time," Nolte said. "So the earliest he could do is Nevada, and that’d be tight timing."